TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Justin Clark – Partner, National Public Affairs
Macy Stepien – VP, Polling & Data Analysis
DATE: March 29, 2023
RE: National Public Affairs WV GOP Primary Survey Findings
National Public Affairs recently conducted a poll among likely primary voters in West Virginia that shows Governor Jim Justice holding a decisive lead as the Republican nominee for the 2024 U.S. Senate race.
Governor Justice is exceedingly popular
Off the bat, Governor Justice has 100% name recognition with 77% total favorability – +60 net favorability overall. 76% of Republican voters have a favorable opinion of him, and that outlook improves with respect to intensity: a majority (55%) have a very favorable opinion of the Governor. He over-performs among older, middle-class income earners while Representative Mooney has some serious problems with Independents, voters under 45 and those with a college degree.
Governor Justice dominates the Republican U.S. Senate field in WV
On the ballot test, Governor Justice has a significant lead – more than 20-points against a field of potential or declared challengers. Notably, he dominates in multiple scenarios – one-on-one and among a larger field. Furthermore, Governor Justice’s coalition extends across key demographic groups. This data cements his potential to unite the Republican coalition and draw in Independent voters in a 2024 general election scenario.
*AG Patrick Morrissey was included on the ballot test because at the time of the poll it was unclear which race he would enter. While he still hasn’t announced, Hoppy Kercheval tweeted a poll on March 16th showing AG Morrissey leading the field for the Republican nomination for Governor.
The sample size for the survey is 360 likely Republican primary voters (Republicans & Independents) in West Virginia. Interviews were collected via landlines and SMS/text messaging to web. The margin of error is +/- 5.2%. Interviews were conducted March 14-17th, 2023.